A Realistic Airline Seating Chart

If this isn't your experience, just wait.

Scott Adams Called This Confusopolies

In response to improvements in information and comparison shopping made available to the consumer through the Internet, the airlines have conspired to make their fare systems Byzantinely complex.

This may be why airlines are waging a war on travel websites. The tools available on these sites make it too difficult to f%$# the customers like a drunk sorority girl:

Once upon a time, there were reasonably well-known ways to pay less for your airfare. Airlines had rules governing ticket prices, those rules were consistent across airlines, and almost everybody knew what the rules were. (If you booked further in advance, the tickets were cheaper. If you stayed a Saturday night, the ticket would be cheaper. That kind of thing.)

Those days, however, are long gone. Airline tickets are no longer priced according to simple rules: they’re dynamically priced according to insanely complex algorithms which, to the naked eye, make no sense at all. Cheap tickets still exist, of course—the problem is that there’s no reliable way of finding them. If you managed to luck into such a ticket a few weeks or months ago, good for you—but don’t for a minute expect that if you behaved exactly the same way today, then you would get a similar result.

A recent paper by Symeon Meichanetzoglou, Sotiris Ioannidis, and Nikolaos Laoutaris sums up the current status quo: “complexity asymmetry,” they conclude, “defeated the web.” The paper is based on a massive database of 1,449,349 flight tickets involving 63 destinations and 125 different airlines—and finds that even the most common-sense rules of airline ticket pricing are regularly violated.

For instance, let’s say you want to book a round-trip flight from Brussels to Stuttgart. The researchers studied six different airlines flying that route, with 619 different fares, and found that 24.5% of the time, it was cheaper to buy two one-way tickets (one from Brussels to Stuttgart, and one from Stuttgart to Brussels) than it was to buy a round-trip. And when they looked at airlines rather than routes, they found similar outliers: one Dutch airline was cheaper more than half the time when buying singles rather than round-trip tickets. (Especially, it seems, on the Frankfurt-Zurich route.)

………

A few years ago, Delta got in trouble for showing higher prices to its frequent fliers than to everybody else; it blamed a “computer glitch.” Ever since then, conspiracy theories have abounded, especially among people who search for flights, find relatively cheap ones, and then find that the fares have suddenly increased when they decide to buy. Is it a good idea to use some kind of private browsing mode when shopping for tickets, so that the airlines can’t identify you and jack their prices accordingly?

The answer, frankly, is that although it won’t hurt if you do that, you’re going to end up outsmarted whatever you do. The airlines and flight search engines have infinitely more information than you do, and that information asymmetry is always going to work to their advantage. If you find a cheap fare, good for you; if you don’t, it’s not your fault. The system is rigged against you. The battle of consumers against the airlines is over. And the airlines have won.

There are industries that hate their customers more than the airlines ***cough*** cable companies ***cough***, but this is a veritable rogues gallery of evil that they have joined.

Visiting My Daughter in the City

We couldn't for everything she needed in one trip, so we came up this week.

She loves the City, and she loves AADA .

Have a picture of the Empire State Building.

  

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Live in Obedient Fear, Citizen!

It turns out that the DHS no fly list is basically based on hunches with a pseudo-scientific gloss:

The Obama administration’s no-fly lists and broader watchlisting system is based on predicting crimes rather than relying on records of demonstrated offenses, the government has been forced to admit in court.

In a little-noticed filing before an Oregon federal judge, the US Justice Department and the FBI conceded that stopping US and other citizens from travelling on airplanes is a matter of “predictive assessments about potential threats”, the government asserted in May.

“By its very nature, identifying individuals who ‘may be a threat to civil aviation or national security’ is a predictive judgment intended to prevent future acts of terrorism in an uncertain context,” Justice Department officials Benjamin C Mizer and Anthony J Coppolino told the court on 28 May.

“Judgments concerning such potential threats to aviation and national security call upon the unique prerogatives of the Executive in assessing such threats.”

It is believed to be the government’s most direct acknowledgement to date that people are not allowed to fly because of what the government believes they might do and not what they have already done.

………

On Friday, the ACLU asked Judge Anna Brown to conduct her own review of the error rate in the government’s predictions modeling – a process the ACLU likens to the “pre-crime” of Philip K Dick’s science fiction.

“I believe this is the first case in which a court is being asked to review the basis for the government’s predictive model for blacklisting people who have never even been charged, let alone convicted, of a violent crime,” said ACLU attorney Hina Shamsi.

In March, as a result of the lawsuit, the Department of Homeland Security began informing people of their inclusion on a flight blacklist and permitting them to file a “redress inquiry”. The resulting non-adversarial process has the government perform “careful consideration” of its reasons for blacklisting, with the Transportation Security Agency director as final arbiter. The ACLU considers the new process insufficient.

But the Obama administration is seeking to block the release of further information about how the predictions are made, for the same reason it opposes providing greater information for challenging watchlist inclusion: damage to national security.

………

In April 2014, five people, all of whom are Muslim, claimed that they were suddenly forbidden from flying after declining FBI pressure to become informants or in order to place pressure upon them to do so. Informants, along with social media postings, have become a driving factor in the FBI’s uptick in arrests of people suspected of ties to al-Qaida and the Islamic State.

In July 2014, the Intercept published an internal watchlisting guidance indicating that nominations to government watchlists were growing, with few rejections. Social media posts were among acceptable criteria, and acquittals in court did not necessarily lead to removals from the list, the Intercept’s document showed.

We are living in an era where the state security apparatus, and the executive that is supposed to ensure that they work in accordance with our interests and our values are thoroughly corrupted by power and fear.

Obama's message is to tell us not to worry, because he is a good and trustworthy man.

The whole point of our system, with its separation of powers, is that we are not supposed to rely on the the good nature of our leaders.

Obama has taken the worst excesses of the Bush administration, and normalized them.

This will Obama's most important legacy, and it is not a positive one.

Worst Constitutional Law Professor Ever!^™

Bridgegate, the Gift that Keeps on Giving

Pass the Popcorn

It appears that David Wildstein has cut a deal, because the announcement of his guilty plea was followed immediately by the indictment of two of what were Governor Christie's most senior aides:

After a 16-month federal investigation into the George Washington Bridge lane closings scandal, a judge in New Jersey unsealed indictments against two people close to Gov. Chris Christie, outlining a conspiracy made with a third confidant to exact political vengeance against a mayor for not endorsing the governor’s re-election.

The United States attorney for New Jersey, Paul J. Fishman, announced the indictments at a news conference on Friday, breaking his long silence about a scandal that started as an inquiry into the cause of a traffic jam and has since led to a host of other investigations into the Christie administration, threatening the political future of one of the nation’s leading Republicans.

Mr. Fishman said that the conspirators “callously victimized” the citizens of Fort Lee, N.J., purposely scheduling the lane-closing plan to coincide with the first day of school. Then, he said, they sought to cover up the scheme with a “sham” story of a traffic study on the bridge to Manhattan. He said that there was evidence to suggest that using a traffic jam to exact revenge was discussed as far back as 2011.

Bill Baroni, the former deputy executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and Bridget Anne Kelly, a former deputy chief of staff to Mr. Christie, were charged with nine counts, including conspiracy to commit fraud by “knowingly converting and intentionally misapplying property of an organization receiving federal benefits.”

David Wildstein, another former Port Authority official and a high school friend of Mr. Christie, pleaded guilty at the United States District Court in Newark to conspiracy to commit fraud and conspiracy against civil rights.

Mr. Fishman said that Mr. Wildstein corroborated the allegations in the indictment.

This is getting interesting.

I don't expect Christie to be indicted, I think that he is familiar enough with the prosecutorial process to avoid his fingerprints being on this, but I think (hope) that this will end his political career.

This Sucks Wet Farts from Dead Pigeons

We are in New York for Natalie's audition with the American Academy of Dramatic Arts in New York City, and it is Passover, so there is nothing we can eat.

I am arguably in the middle of what is the most diverse, and best, cuisine in the western hemisphere, and I cannot have any of it.

Gaaaaahhhh!!

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Dudes! Haven't You Heard of the Streisand Effect?!?!?!*

A 22-year old geek figured out a way to find some cheap airfares, and he set up a website, Skiplagged, which applies the algorithm.

What's more, his site is free to the public.

Well, Orbitz and United Airlines decided that they had to go medieval on his ass, and roll out the lawyers, and so his site is now getting mainstream coverage, fom places like Fortune Magazine:

United Airlines and Orbitz have teamed up to file suit against a 22-year-old entrepreneur whose airline ticketing startup, Skiplagged, operates according to a thrifty booking ploy known as ‘hidden city’ ticketing.

This means that passengers purchase tickets for indirect flights with the intention to disembark at their layover destinations. Say you want to fly from New York to Chicago, for instance: it could be cheaper to take an indirect flight to Los Angeles and then get off at the Chicago layover.

While hidden city ticketing only works when travelers purchase one-way tickets without any checked baggage, notes CNN, this often represents the cheapest option.

 Yeah, CNN covered it too.

I was unaware of this technique, but I have now bookmarked the site, and I imagine that some of you will too.

Orbitz, United Airlines Sue 22-Year...


^*Wherein an attempt to suppress information has the unintended effect of publicizing that information. (Link)

Natalie Should be in Hilo Now

We got up an ungodly hour this morning to put Natalie on a flight to San Francisco, and then connects to Honolulu and from there to Hilo airport on the big island.

The flight left at 6:00 am, so we set our alarms at 3:00 am.

My daughter is being to Hawaii to be with her Grandparents tomorrow.

It's a senior year thing.

My little girl is graduating from high school this year, which is unbelievably f%$#ing weird.

I remember holding her in one hand at her naming about a week after her birth.

They grow up so fast.

Headline of the Day

US Reroutes Flights Around Alaska Beach in Attempt to Avoid Walrus Stampede

I just love this hed.

It's Talk Like a Pirate Day Day

And so, I am going to be camping in New Jersey my family.

We are driving to the Lakewood, NJ Renfaire.

Hey, don't judge me!  We are each allowed to celebrate this holiday in our own special way.

Needless to say, it will be light posting until sometime Sunday.

No Blogging for You!

I just got back from picking up my mother in law to the airport.

She visited my sister in law in Memphis over Passover.

Unfortunately, this means that I will have to delay my brilliantly satirical essay about how conservatives are stunned and chagrined to discover that their favorite welfare cheat rancher is a bigot who liked slavery because it kept them in their place.

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The Inevitable Vacation Selfie

Taken at George W. Bush airport.
No merch with the logo at the store, it's just an ordinary airport news stand.

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Well Now, Isn't That Special!

On the flight down to Houston, I got to be in the colicky baby row!

I am truly blessed.

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We are Boarding the Plane to Houston Now

The first of 2 legs to Baltimore.

I am expecting a delay from Godzilla at this point.

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F@#&. F@#&ity, F@#&, F@#&, F@#&!!!

Now out is weather in Chicago that has our flight canceled!

Shoot me now!!!

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GAAAAHHHH!!!!!

We are all in Seattle.

We are all in the apartment we rented.

Now all we need is our f%$#ing luggage!!!!

United's Web Was Down, and I Was on Hold for 2 F%$#ing Hours, So ………

This Sh%$ is all F%$#ed Up!

So I drove to the airport to see what could be arranged at the ticket counter.

There are no seats avilable, so we will be playing the wait list tango at BWI starting very early in the morning.

Keep your fingers crossed for me.

Thank you Mr. Anthropogenic Climate Change.

With a bit of luck, we will make it by Friday some time.

I keep expecting Chevy Chase to appear, because it does seem like one of his Vacation movies.

F%$# Me Rae Bradbury

Some context for the title

Flight is cancelled, and I have f%$#ing been on f%$#ing hold for 2 f%$#ing hours.

I'm thinking that it would be faster to drive to BWI (We just got our road plowed^*), and a round trip should be less time than I have spent on hold.

^*Additionally, I am feeling the need to get a bit plowed myself.

Weather Permitting, My Ass!

Not only our flight, but our trip to the airport this evening are in doubt.

I still expect to make out in time to see Eugenia chant the Haftorah on Saturday, but we might not even be able to leave the house until tomorrow morning.

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Packing

Taking the red eye to Seattle tomorrow for my niece's bat Mitzvah.

Assuming that the weather permits, which is a substantial assumption.

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