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Friday, January 6, 2012

The Non-Farm Payroll Numbers Are Out

And the numbers are good in an anemic sort of way, with unemployment (U-3) falling from 8.7% to 8.3%, and non-farm payrolls rising by 200K.

So how good is this?

Not very good, according to the Shrill One:

First, note that there are still about 6 million fewer jobs than there were at the end of 2007 — and that we would normally have expected to have added around 5 million jobs over a four-year period. So we’re 11 million jobs down — and we need at least 100,000 jobs a month just to keep up with working-age population growth. Do the math, and you’ll see that it would take 9 or 10 years of growth at this rate to restore full employment.

Alternatively, note that during the Clinton years — all 8 of them — the economy added around 230,000 jobs a month. As it did that, the unemployment rate fell about 3 1/2 percentage points — which is about what we’d need from here to get back to something that felt like full employment. Again, this suggests that we’re looking at something like a decade-long haul to have full recovery.
Not good enough.

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