So, Are We Going to Repeat 1937?

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Why this picture does not scare the powers that be defies understanding
H/t Calculated Risk

Well, a quick rundown of this week's data seems to indicate that if we listen to the austerity fetishists, we are.

In employment, the Thursday unemployment claims data indicates a continued weakening of the employment picture, with initial claims rising 13K to 472K, at least 100K more than what we need to see for meaningful job growth, and both the 4-week moving average and the continuing claims numbers went in the wrong direction too.

Additionally, the official job numbers for June came out, and the non-Farm payroll fell by 125,000, though the drop was because of the US Census winding down its temporary positions.

Private employment rose by an anemic 83,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 9.7% to 9.5%, though the latter was largely from people leaving the rolls because they had given up looking, and the hourly workweek fell.

Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Index fell from 59.7 to 56.2, a 6-month low, though any number over 50 still shows expansion, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' index fell slightly as well.

Also, in yet another indication that the economy is running out of steam because the stimulus is running out, small business lending from the SBA has cratered following the expiration of its bonus program to lending banks.

Of course, the inflation hysterics hawks are saying that the bond markets are mad as hell, and that they are not going to take it any more, but if this were true, mortgage rates would not have fallen to their lowest rates in 50 years.

I would note that we are seeing the same thing in real estate, with 31% of all home sales being foreclosure or short sales, up from 1% at the height of the bubble, and these foreclosures are selling for a 27% discount relative to regular sales, which indicates that a recovery, either in price or in volume is still far away.