Economics Update (Early Afternoon, 1st Time This Week Edition)

It's jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims fell from 448,000 to 444,000, though it should be noted that last week's number of 448,000 was actually revised up from 444,000, meaning that the number is even flatter than the 4K change indicates.

That being said, the 4 week moving average fell by 9,000, which might indicate a slight trend downward in claims, if not for the fact that continuing claims rose, indicating that this may be less a matter of the economy picking up than it is a matter of employers simply running out of people to let go.

In terms of other metrics for the economy:

Consumer confidence, at least as surveyed by Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, has risen in May, from 48.7 from 48.4, though numbers below 50 indicate pessimism.

The National Federation of Independent Business' optimism index rose to 90.6 in April from 86.8 in March, which is firmly in the class of, "better, but still pretty weak tea."

In transport and trade, we have the trade deficit hitting a 15-month high, which, while normally not a good thing, is right now, because we are well into "paradox of thrift" territory.

Additionally, we have the always worthwhile Calculated risk reporting that Diesel fuel consumption fell slightly, and rail traffic rose slightly, in April.

In real estate, mortgage applications are up, but only because refinance is up, purchase applications are down, indicating that we are seeing people who are trying to lock in low rates on homes that they already own.

Finally, the Bank of England has decided to maintain its monetary policies, keeping its benchmark rate at ½% (effectively zero), and maintaining its quantitative easing via asset purchases.