Economics Update

The lede here is that the Federal Reserved has announced another round of quantitative easing (printing money), $600 billion over the next 9 months, more than the the widely forecast $½ trillion, which pushed the US dollar down in currency markets.

Accompanying the statement was a mild, to my mind too mild, statement about how the recovery is not progressing as rapidly as planned.

With the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling, and US GDP growing at a truly anemic 2% rate, I think that they are being too timid, though there is good news with the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index and non-manufacturing index, and ADP's private employment survey: all show an increase.

Even more significantly, it appears that retail sales are beating expectations, which may bode well for the all-important holiday shopping season.

Still, real estate looks dead, with mortgage applications remaining flat despite historically low rates.

BTW, here is a blast from the past, monoliner bond insurer Ambac is warning that it might go bankrupt this year.

I'm wondering if this will put a whole raft of municipal bonds in technical default, since if Ambac goes BK, then it no longer has an obligation to fulfill its insurance contracts.

I really don't know. Does anyone else know?

Full Fed Statement after break:

Press Release



Release Date: November 3, 2010

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig. Mr. Hoenig believed the risks of additional securities purchases outweighed the benefits. Mr. Hoenig also was concerned that this continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future financial imbalances and, over time, would cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations that could destabilize the economy.

Statement from Federal Reserve Bank of New York Leaving the Board