Economics Update

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Unemployment Graph Pr0n Courtesy of Calculated Risk

Exhaustion Rate Graph Pr0n Courtesy of zero hedge

Initial claims for unemployment fell this week again, down 21K to 530K, but that's because unemployment claims from last week were revised to 551. The first count was 545K, so the apples to apples delta is 15K, not 21K (I love how it always seems to work out this way).

The 4 week moving average fell too, 553.5K, down from 546.5K, and continuing claims fell 123K, to 6.138m from last weeks 6,261m.

Note, however, that continuing claims do not count folks who are on extended benefits, or who have exhausted benefits, and that the exhaustion rate has hit a new record, with 52.40% of all people filing for unemployment exhausting their benefits before they find another job.

In real estate, existing home sales fell for the first time in 5 months, and we are hearing dire warnings about a shadow inventory of 7 million foreclosures which have yet to hit the market, either because the lenders are hip deep in foreclosures, and the process is proceeding slowly, or because they are holding off to avoid selling into a down market.

The down housing market has been good for treasuries, with prices rising, and yields falling, as people flock to their relative safety.

The quest for safety has investors running back to dollars, driving the greenback up, and pushing oil down below $66/bbl (!).

Someone is not believing in recovery here.