Economics Update

Auto Sales Graph Pr0n Courtesy Calculated Risk

Construction Spending Pron Also Courtesy of Calculated Risk

As is noted by Calculated Risk, light vehicle sales hit a 1¼ year high in August, but that was with the Cash for Clunkers program, which is now over, which begs the question, "What happens in September?"

I think that the trend is generally up, because the sales were so low that the fleet replacement time (fleet size/sales) was approaching 30 years, which is simply unsustainable. (click images for full size)

It should also be noted that for all the claims of recovery, both residential and non-residential construction spending continues to decline.

Additionally, notwithstanding the "green shoots", the bond market is pricing in some very hard times ahead, with US Treasuries rising in price, which drops their yield.

This sentiment is also serving to drive the Yen and the dollar higher, and crude oil lower, as people look for a safe haven.