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Sunday, December 1, 2013

Abenomics is Working

If you believe, as I do, that much of the cause of the lost decade(s) in Japan is deflation/disinflation, then the news of consumer prices rising in Japan is an unalloyed good:

Consumer prices in Japan rose at the fastest pace in five years in October, suggesting policymakers' attempts to end years of deflation are working.

Consumer prices, excluding food, rose 0.9% from a year earlier. Prices have now risen for five months in a row.

Japan has been battling deflation, or falling prices, for best part of the past 20 years.

It is seen as a major drag on its economy and policymakers have unveiled a series of measures to end the cycle.

While falling prices may sound good to those experiencing inflation, they hold back economic growth as consumers and businesses tend to put off purchases in the hope of getting a cheaper deal later on, which hurts domestic demand.

………

Japan's central bank has set a target of achieving an inflation rate of 2%.
I think that the central bank is being too timid. I think that their target, at least over the next 2-5 years, should be more, somewhere between 4% and 6%, but the admittedly anemic 0.9% rate is better that what has been the trend for a very long time.

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