Where the Conventional Wisdom is Wrong

This New York Times article about German authorities freaking out about Germany's falling birth rate:

At first glance, this town in central Germany, with rows of large houses built when it was a thriving center of toy manufacturing, looks tidy and prosperous. But Heiko Voigt, the deputy mayor here, can point out dozens of vacant homes that he doubts will ever be sold.

The reality is that the German population is shrinking and towns like this one are working hard to hide the emptiness. Mr. Voigt has already supervised the demolition of 60 houses and 12 apartment blocs, strategically injecting grassy patches into once-dense complexes.

“We are trying to keep the town looking good,” he said.

There is perhaps nowhere better than the German countryside to see the dawning impact of Europe’s plunge in fertility rates over the decades, a problem that has frightening implications for the economy and the psyche of the Continent. In some areas, there are now abundant overgrown yards, boarded-up windows and concerns about sewage systems too empty to work properly. The work force is rapidly graying, and assembly lines are being redesigned to minimize bending and lifting.

In its most recent census, Germany discovered it had lost 1.5 million inhabitants. By 2060, experts say, the country could shrink by an additional 19 percent, to about 66 million.

Demographers say a similar future awaits other European countries, and the issue grows more pressing every day as Europe’s seemingly endless economic troubles accelerate the decline. But bogged down with failed banks and dwindling budgets, few are in any position to do anything about it.

………

If Germany is to avoid a major labor shortage, experts say, it will have to find ways to keep older workers in their jobs, after decades of pushing them toward early retirement, and it will have to attract immigrants and make them feel welcome enough to make a life here. ………

This is not a problem.

A labor shortage is not a problem.  One only has to look at what happened after the Black Death hit Europe:  Wages for ordinary folks exploded, because of  this.

The top of the feudal hierarchy was hurting, because they lost power, and wealth, relative to the hoi polloi, but that is a good thing.

Doubtless, the costs of supporting an elderly population will increase per capita, which is a sort of social safety net that did not exist in 1350, but if we look at things like a Social Security fix the costs for a timely fix are relatively low.

Even if the taxes of the 99% go up by 5%, and their wages go up by 10%, the 99% wins.

Do the math.

Ancient history, bitches, it just works.